Peter Ruppert's Blog

PopScores takes consumer perception of artists and transforms it into measures of emotional connection. It’s straight forward - the more popular an act, the higher the PopScore rank. It’s also immediate - it identifies the demographics an artist is connecting with in a blink of an eye. From this we can see for example the impact each single has on an artist and how PR impacts artist perception and purchase intention

The system is now well understood and it has uncovered many unknowns of emotional connection. We have learned for instance

• At what level of emotional connection people buy records
• How many artists on average different demographics Love at any point of time
• The fastest and strongest initial connection is with female teenagers
• Which demographics an artist needs to connect with to generate sales

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PopScores goes deeper still. It can be used to spot future winners, acts currently only connecting with smaller segments and therefore unfamiliar to the mass market. From this month we will feature a section which highlights these breakthrough acts.

To understand how to do this we need to look at a combination of factors. Let’s use an earlier breakthrough prediction identified by PopScores such as Alphabeat.

Alphabeat have a PopScore of 6 which ranks them at 204. Name Awareness is 29% and Informed Awareness is 13%. The band had a relatively good start on radio in February but for the mass market it’s still early days requiring as it does a considerable amount of persistent exposure to break through the 50% familiarity barrier.

With young acts like Alphabeat the total ranking is meaningless because it’s driven by the level of familiarity which in their case remains low. The higher the familiarity, the greater potential for love. To make this even clearer look at rank 197 which is occupied by the Spice Girls who are 99% familiar but rank only 7 places ahead of Alphabeat.

So if we consider Alphabeat’s familiarity is well below the average then what do we look for? Well, most acts at their level of familiarity reveal some tell-tale emotional connection or they flat-line. Let’s look at a typical profile for a not-yet-happening artist with a similar level of familiarity. As you can see there’s very little love within any demographic despite almost 1 in 3 people having heard of the act.

Example of Flat-line Emotional Connection

Compare this to Alphabeat’s chart below. What’s really important is their 6% Love score with a specific demographic (20-29 year old men) indicating a strong node of connection. Further growth in Informed Awareness in this segment is likely to grow Love well beyond the average.

This position is underscored by the fact that the 6% Love is the same as the average Love for this segment overall but achieved on Informed Awareness of just 25% Vs an average of 65%.

We already know how important “love” is for purchase propensity but it is equally important for the spread of word of mouth which will generate awareness across the demographics.

Alphabeat Love Score by Demographic

The top buzzing act this month is Does It Offend You, Yes who are clearly connecting with female teenagers with a remarkable 13% love score on just 18% awareness. Here’s a taste:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6_ubiAzoSk

Top Buzzing Artists

This Month’s Movers & Shakers

Mark Ronson is gaining credibility in particular with 20-29 year olds. His Love score rose by 4 points from 9% to 14% supported by a 7 point increase in Name Awareness to 86% and a 6 point increase in Informed Awareness to 75%.

An act that has been bubbling under with teens for a while is Scouting For Girls and they are now showing signs of breaking out of their core market. They recorded a significant increase in Love in the 20-29 female segment (8% to 12%) and a very decent 9 point increase in Informed Awareness with 30-39 year old males taking it to 60%. Name Awareness increased by 4 points to 68% and Informed Awareness grew by 6 points to 50%.