Peter Ruppert's Blog

How long does it really take to break an artist? What’s the tipping point? When is the album campaign really over or is it just over when it’s over? When an album goes platinum and the third or fourth single with good airplay doesn’t drive further album sales many switch to the next project. But how many more albums could have been sold?

These big questions are often left hanging but there is an answer…

It lies in consumers’ familiarity with the artist. Knowing the level of familiarity is a vital starting point to increase sales. Artists often manage to sell significant volumes to tastemakers/early adopters but barely touch mainstream audiences. Here’s an example. Newton Faulkner is the current number 1 album seller based on his first single release from the album. His awareness amongst consumers (“Name Awareness”) is just 34% and crucially only 18% of consumers are sufficiently familiar with him to hold an opinion (“Informed Awareness”).

Newton’s benchmark target ought to be an Informed Awareness of over 90% and therefore the campaign should have a long way to run. However, songs drive familiarity and one connecting song won’t deliver 90% artist awareness. Take a look at The Hoosiers developing awareness:

The orange line shows their Name Awareness and the blue line shows their Informed Awareness since April this year.

“Worried About Ray” has taken The Hoosiers to an acceptable 46% Name Awareness. Where their familiarity (and therefore album sales) goes from here will depend upon whether they get decent radio airplay for their follow-up singles and whether those singles connect.


 
Moore’s adoption curve applies equally well to music consumers. So where on the curve is Newton Faulkner right now? PopScores indicates he’s got a long way to go in terms of familiarity and therefore significant sales ahead of him. This month his Name Awareness grew by 10% which was surpassed only by Kate Nash (11%). In a mass market, these are big steps.

Levels of familiarity are hard to guess correctly. When we think an act is hot, we think everyone knows about them. That was understandable when the only available measure of success was sales stats but with PopScores that is no longer the case.

What’s more, sales are a response to emotional connection and the driver is familiarity. When an artist without much media support fails, most of us agree they failed because nobody heard of them. Alternatively, when an artist with a big airplay hit fails we say that the song didn’t connect. In truth, the problem is most likely to be inadequate artist awareness. When Simon Webbe released his first solo album it took significant time for consumers to make the connection, despite heavy airplay, before the album went double platinum.

To better understand levels of familiarity, here are a few examples “we all know”. The artists enjoy some success but they all show incredible potential for growth. The number that matters most is Informed Awareness, the percentage of people who know enough about the artist to have an opinion.

What about artists that we consider established - artists that have sold platinum or double platinum?

What these artists have in common are strong songs that have helped build their familiarity. Muse had their big break this year, having delivered twelve UK Top 20 singles since 2000. Their level of Informed Awareness at 68% is still relatively low and should rise with their current break-through.

Kelly Clarkson has had five Top 10 singles since 2003 and the Killers two Top 5 singles and another five in the Top 20 since 2005. Since 2005 The Kooks have had five Top 10 singles plus another two in the Top 20 including “Ooh La”, a major radio hit.  So patience is necessary if an act has only a few songs at a time that connect with audiences. Mika however enjoyed a much faster ride with significantly more successful singles. One number 1 and 2 in the Top 10 since January has propelled his name awareness to 90%.

If you know where you are, it’s a whole lot easier to know how much further you have to travel and when you’ve arrived.